ECON6470

6470: Economic Growth and Development

ECON 6470 Growth & Devel Course calendar

Welcome to Econ 6470. Here is the Fall 2019 Syllabus This page links you to the up to date and frequently updated course calendar with links to lecture notes and assignments. See this home for office hours, I can meet anytime including weekends but please confirm by email mcleod@fordham.edu the day of and the day before. Office: Dealy E527

We are so fortunate our alumni including Marcelo La Fleur (UNDP DESA) and Senior Economists Elitza Mileva and Maria Davalos come visit us (thank you GSA!) Last time Dr Mileva defended her 2017 6.4% Growth forecast for China (the actual rate was 6.6% see her WB report) Maria presented the results of an extremely interesting and data intensive study of migration from Africa to Europe…

As you know two wonderful growth and development economists share the 2018 the Nobel Prize, Paul Romer and William Nordhaus (see the DICE vs. the IAMs model below). As it happens Mechry Etolba and I were in Paul Romer’s office more or less the day he was fired (whose mistake was that?). To be fair, Romer admits he fouled up in questioning the Doing Business indicators (by far the World Bank-IFC’s most famous indicators). Many well informed economists see corruption behind every claim and/or government decision. Corruption and violence are certainly serious problems, but just look at the history of New York or Illinois (even recent history…).

See also the post Piketty globalization value chain elephant growth incidence curve and showing the rise of a new world middle class (the back of the elephant) and the much slower rise in the incomes of the OECD middle class combined with a sharp increase in the incomes of the top 1% (the trunk). Even more dramatic is fall in global poverty to under 10% in 2015 ($1/1.25/1.38 and now $1.90/day poverty measure in 2011 PPP prices, of course). It is impossible to predict how the future will view our era but the recent “miracle” growth rates in developing countries is certainly among remarkable accomplishments of our generation. Since the late 1990s when first Asia then Latin America and Africa all grew at over 5% annually, with China growing at twice that rate.

Manufacturing in Africa?

WSJ Cashews gif This created the “Elephant” growth incidence curve, certainly a welcome sight for development economists, but see Baldwin’s the Great Convergence, value chains and from Growth Models to Development Strategies

and Mexico’s NAFTA Paradox (with Demand side Poverty Traps)

See also my twitter feed access to many interesting growth related papers/reports with no paywall (example: Who won NAFTA 2.0 negotiations? ) Check E527 & E530 Dealy before and after class. See the bottom of this page for the most watched development videos ever (the President of Ghana has stolen the crown from the FT’s Lewis turning point) The Facts of Economic Growth Thanks to Nick for finding Chapter 2 of Aghion and Howitt posted at Brown University. Did it’s new leader Change Ethiopia? Social Europe: Living wages in global supply chains.

The 2000-2015 MDGs era largely validates growth and development driven by globalization, development economics in particular remains Ethiopia’s great run

“grand pursuit” … PWt 9.0 TFP Data WEO April 2018 Barro & Sala-i-Martin Chapter 2 see p 64 Jones 2nd ed Chapter 5 Do Insitutions Cause Growth Jones 2nd ed Chapter 8

World Bank Human Capital Index Middle class now 1/2 of world population Max Roser What do do when extreme poverty reaches 5%?

Climate Change and Growth Heal, 2000 Valuing the Future Rule

Economic Integration and Political Disintegration Cashews in Vietnam (text video left) Ortega and Peri, 2014

Building an IAMS vs. The DICE Model

Topics Convergence big time (long) Convergence of Everything (short) 2016 Convergence lecture with Beta and Sigma convergence

WB Gender and Economic Growth Rodrik RERs and Economic Growth 2008 Do Insitutions Cause Growth Gender and Economic Growth IMF

Revisiting the paradox of Capital A new approach to restoring growth? Margaret, Dani Rodrik, and Claudia Sepulveda (2017) Migration and Growth

Manufacturing lost? Structural change, fundamentals and growth: a framework and case studies. IFPRI book and NBER w23378.

Stylized Facts Intro SP 2017 Course Syllabus: Elephant Diagram Intro Lecture PS #2 Inequality and Growth IMF WEO Blog Growth Miracles 2017 Sweatshops in Ethiopia?

Growth Econometrics Handout Three Growth Models Growth Accounting Lecture Finance, Openness and Growth Gender Gaps and Growth Sustainable Growth

China’s growth may be understated Midterm Fall 2016 Growth Stylized Facts (midterm slide 54)

Books

Agénor, Pierre-Richard (2004) Economics of Adjustment and Growth, 2nd ed (HUP) 0674015789
Barro, R. & J. Sala-i-Martin (2004) Economic Growth 2nd ed (MIT Press) 0262025531
Acemoglu, Daron (2009) Introduction to Modern Economic Growth, Princeton Univ Press 0691132925
(Chapter 1, 2, & 5 as well as an epilogue or this early pdf draft).
*Jones, Charles & Dietrich Vollrath (2013) Introduction to Economic Growth 3rd edition (W.W. Norton ISBN: 039391917X)
*Aghion, P and P. Howitt (2009) Economics of Growth (MIT Press, Boston) 0262012634

F. Ortega, G. Peri Openness and income: The roles of trade and migration, Journal of International Economics, 92 (2) (2014), pp. 231-251

http://www.gdsnet.org/ThreeGrowthModelsWithDiagrams2016LargeFigures.pdf

Lectures:

Part I: Development and Growth: Globalization, Growth and Poverty
1. Introduction: Growth and Inequality as captured by the Elephant Growth Incidence Curve
2. Africa: From Poverty Trap to Growth Miracle?
3. Three Growth Model stories
4. Demand & supply side poverty traps
5. Population and Sustainable growth
6. Inequality and Growth
7. Growth Strategies: Institutions, Geography vs. Integration
Part II: Policies to promote Economic Growth and reduce inequality: the economics of Redistribution
1. Growth Accounting and the mystery of TFP growth
2. Openness, exchange rates and Growth: Trade, Migration and Growth
3. Inclusive growth: finance and growth: financial inclusion and inclusive growth
4. Capital Flows: FDI, Debt, Aid and Growth: HIPC
5. Valuing Future Generations: Natural Resources, Climate change and long term growth
6. Growth case studies: Senegal, Ethiopia, and Nigeria.

Assignments/handouts labor share debate mankiw on r>g

Russia Demographics and Growth Jones Population Growth slides