ECON3235 – Page 3

ECON 3235: Child Migration from the Northern Triangle

Great CGD event September 13th 2017, map below is from the Clemens and Postel, 2017 policy brief, here is the CGD paper.

CGD Event Webcast Event starts 8 minutes in (at first you just here audiennce talking before event… )

References

CGD Policy Brief: Foreign Policy Is Migration Policy: Lessons from the Drivers of Central American Child Migration, 9/13/17, Michael Clemens and Hannah Postel

Clemens, Michael A. Violence, Development and Migration Waves: Evidence from Central American Child Migrant Apprehensions. No. 10928. Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), 2017 or CGD Working Paper #459

https://www.cgdev.org/publication/foreign-policy-migration-policy-lessons-drivers-central-american-child-migration

5,801,744 views •Aug 25, 2017 Vox explanation of Venezuela’s crisis

Critical or sympathetic, none of us can minimize the terrible human suffering the Venezuela news documentary included in this post document… Venezuela is caught in a perfect storm with multiple dimensions and causes: economic and political populism rapidly descending into authoritarianism, crime and a very distressing decline in living standards. We have Greece (now Puerto Rico) and our own great Depression (not recession, the 1930s) but the 30%+ decline in Venezuela’s national income since 2013 is unprecedented and vary distressing. As someone said about international capital flow reversals, it not the speed that kills you, it is the sudden stop. The collapse in Venezuela’s economy has indeed been deadly (as many of the news documentaries below document). We may disagree on the causes of this crisis, blaming Chavez, Maduro or U.S. foreign policy, but knowing the cause may or may not help us end this crisis. It is not there yet, but Venezuela in danger of becoming a failed state… as such it is in everyone’s interest to reverse its decline. How to do that is an open questions. A long history of U.S. military intervention in the region removes that option. Sanctions may help punish the guilty but rarely work and can take a very long time to work. All we can do is wish the Venezuelans still there well, and welcome them however and whenever we can. This crisis is yet another illustration of why markets matter and why human mobility can help a lot. Not every immigrant is better of, but families with members abroad have a safety net (remittances, advice and perhaps a ticket out of the country).

An excellent long term view of the crisis, very well done:

Solutions: DACA and migration to Chicago has helped Marina De Bartolo and her family immigration from Venezuela. Why do she need DACA? Why do Marina’s parents need her TPS? Who benefits and who loses from DACA in this case? Might Marina return if conditions improve in Venezuela? Even if she does not, how might her success affect other women in Venezuela? Discuss the Jesuit connection to DACA and this Atlantic Magazine story/video.

John Welch and I worked in Venezuela at Lehman Brothers, we had a good plan, McLeod and Welch, 1996 Lehman Venezuela outlook it was blocked by the election of Hugo Chavez who tried to redistribute by controlling prices, this never works, much better to hand out cash, and let markets (profits) deliver the goods… once oil revenues fell Venezuelans paid a heavy price for Maduro’s ignorance of basic economics .

https://youtu.be/d0wPU3KOr90